How much economic growth will tax cuts create? The President’s outline of his tax proposals is based on the premise that tax cuts pay for themselves by stimulating the economy to create additional and offsetting tax revenues. There are varying ways to project the effect of tax policy on economic growth and tax revenue; the most popular method is called dynamic scoring. To bring dynamic scoring into focus, it is necessary to understand what it is, how it is calculated, and why it matters.
In less than 250 words, the Trump Administration outlined a tax reform plan on April 26. “This is going to be the biggest tax cut and the largest tax reform in the history of our country and we are committed to seeing this through,” said Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin.
The outline includes changes to decrease the tax rates for individuals and businesses. It also calls for the repeal of the individual alternative minimum tax (AMT), the net investment income tax (NIIT), and the estate tax. Other than eliminating certain deductions, the proposal did not include any definitive measures for increasing revenue to offset the cuts. The plan also did not address non-tax matters, such as infrastructure spending or construction of a border wall.